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Key Trends to Know From the Last 25 Editions of the Breeders’ Cup Sprint

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By Mike Curry

The Breeders’ Cup Sprint is as American as apple pie, hot-dog eating contests, and fireworks. Sprint races on a dirt main track make up the foundation of U.S. racing and this country excels in the discipline.

It’s also usually a damn good race with 12 of the last 25 editions decided by less than a length.

With 2022 and 2023 winner Elite Power retired, there will be a new Sprint sheriff in town Nov. 2 at Del Mar when the 2024 Breeders’ Cup World Championships concludes with the $2 million Cygames Sprint.

I’m always on the lookout for some tips and historical trends to help me identify the most likely winner, eliminate a few contenders, and uncover a couple of other entrants who warrant a second look. Let’s explore the last 25 editions of the Breeders’ Cup Sprint from Artax’s win in 1999 at Gulfstream Park through Elite Power’s repeat victory last November at Santa Anita Park and create the profile of a prototypical Sprint winner.

Logical … for the most part

Horses that started at 4-1 odds or less have won 12 of the last 25 editions of the Sprint, including six who left the starting gate as the favorite. The average winning odds for the Sprint over the last 25 years is 8.1-1 with a median of 4.9-1.

On the other hand, there have been nine winners over the last 25 years that paid $20 or more for a $2 win bet … but the Sprint is not historically a race to look for a true bomb of an upset winner. The longest-priced winner was Dancing in Silks at 25.3-1 in 2009, but that race was one of two during this time window that was held on an all-weather surface, which led to some unpredictable results overall.

The only other winner at odds of 20-1 or higher in the last quarter-century came all the way back in 2003 when 3-year-old Cajun Beat struck at 22.8-1 odds. He had tried stretching out in distance for the Tampa Bay Derby and turf three starts later before finding his niche as a dirt sprinter in the second half of the season.

If you are looking for a price, keep an eye on the runners in the 9-1 to 23-1 range. Quality sprinters with legit credentials who fell into this range include Squirtle Squirt (9.6-1, 2001), Cajun Beat, Silver Train (11.9-1, 2005), Thor’s Echo (15.6-1, 2006), Trinniberg (13.7-1, 2012), Work All Week (19.1-1, 2014), and Whitmore (18.4-1, 2020). There is logic to the value in the Sprint.

Favor recent form

Sixteen of the last 25 Breeders’ Cup Sprint winners won their final prep race and 22 finished either first or second in their last pre-Breeders’ Cup start. Only two winners entered off unplaced finishes: defending Sprint winner Midnight Lute in 2008 and Whitmore in 2020.

Midnight Lute returned from a layoff of more than nine months for Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert with a 10th-place finish in the Grade 2 Pat O’Brien Stakes. No doubt, he just needed a race and in his next start Midnight Lute won the Sprint by 1 ¾ lengths at 2.7-1 odds, so he was no surprise. Whitmore finished fourth in his final prep race after he ran second and third in the previous two editions of the Breeders’ Cup Sprint before his breakthrough win. He, too, was a proven commodity.

Overall, this group won 52.6% of their races pre-Breeders’ Cup in the year they won the race and the last 15 Sprint winners were even better, winning 48 of their 75 starts (64%).

Ten of the last 15 winners of the race did so coming off of a victory and the other four not named Whitmore since 2009 finished second, three of them beaten by less than a length.

A true craftsman

Look for dedicated sprinters in this race, a craftsman plying his trade, rather than a longer-distance runner cutting back for the Sprint. The average and median distance raced in the year of their Breeders’ Cup win was just under 6 ½ furlongs and only two competed in races with an average distance longer than seven-eighths of a mile: Midnight Lute in 2007 in his first of back-to-back wins and Trinniberg at 3 in 2012. Midnight Lute started that year out competing in the Strub series but by spring Bob Baffert had shortened him to sprints. Likewise, Trinniberg’s average distance was due to his start in that year’s Kentucky Derby, a race in which he pressed the pace and faded to finish 17th of 20. Trinniberg subsequently returned to sprinting.

Coastal elites

Eleven Breeders’ Cup Sprint winners prepped for the World Championships in New York and eight more made their final prep in California, so that’s a good place to start off the search for this year’s victor. Four others came out of the Phoenix Stakes at Keeneland.

Making the grade

Twenty of the last 25 Breeders’ Cup Sprint winners entered the race with a Grade 2 win or better on their résumé and 24 were at least stakes winners. Only Aloha West, a Grade 2-placed allowance winner in 2021, bucked the trend of Sprint winners having at least one stakes win.

What surprised me most was that only 13 of the 25 winners were Grade 1 winners entering the race. I expected the number to be much higher but perhaps the lesson is that form is more important than class in this race.

Pace predictability

While 12 of the 25 editions of the Breeders’ Cup Sprint were won by horses who profiled as pace, pace/press, or press the pace type runners, there has not been any strong trend in terms of running style. In fact, only two pacesetters have led from start to finish in this race over the last 25 years. Of the six winners who profiled as closers or closer/stalkers, four have come in the last four editions of the race.

Make no mistake, tactical speed is always a valuable asset in dirt sprints, but don’t overlook a quality off-the-pace runner in good form with legitimate speed figures just because they will have some ground to make up in the stretch. Ten of the last 25 winners were outside the top three with a quarter-mile remaining and only 10 of the 25 winners were in first in early stretch with roughly an eighth of a mile to the finish line.

Insights for dirt Sprints in California

Removing the two all-weather races in 2008 and 2009 from the equation, a few things jumped out from the nine dirt sprints in Southern California (Santa Anita Park and Del Mar) over the last 25 years.

Six of the nine winners entered off a win and the other three were second.

The nine winners compiled an impressive pre-Breeders’ Cup record in the year of their Sprint victory of 30 wins from 47 starts (64%) and the last seven winners from 2013 to 2023 won 75% of their races that year.

Five of the nine boasted tactical speed and profiled in the pace, pace/press, press the pace category with another, Roy H in 2017, profiling as a stalker/press the pace type. By average, the nine winners were less than two lengths off the pace with a median of one length behind the pacesetter.

There were four winners between 11.3-1 and 22.8-1 from this nine-race sample and only two winning favorites: Secret Circle in 2013 for Baffert and repeat winner Elite Power in 2023. Think value!

Sure, Baffert won two of these nine editions of the Breeders’ Cup held on dirt in Southern California from 1999 to 2023, but don’t just focus on the mega-trainers. Names like Steve Margolis, Bisnath Parboo, Roger Brueggemann, Peter Miller, and Wayne Catalano prove good sprinters can come from barns of all sizes.

Evaluating 2024 contenders

The list of logical contenders for the 2024 Cygames Breeders’ Cup Sprint is longer than I can remember based on previous years. Even with the defection of accomplished California sprinter The Chosen Vron, there are quite a few horses with a real shot to win based on both typical handicapping tools like speed figures and race replays as well as some of these historical trends.

Mullikin is 4-for-4 this year with graded stakes wins from on and off the pace, and he enters off a dominant 5 ¾-length win in the Grade 1 Forego Stakes Aug. 24 at Saratoga for trainer Rodolphe Brisset. One minor concern is that his last three races were all at seven furlongs, so he’s not the tried-and-true three-quarter-mile specialist.

Federal Judge won the Stoll Keenon Ogden Phoenix Stakes Oct. 4 at Keeneland for his first stakes victory and has two wins and a second in three starts this year. He comes out of a productive prep with impeccable recent form but he does prefer to be on the lead. Tactical speed is valuable but with only two front-running winners in 25 years, the Army Mule gelding might need to rate just off the pace and we’ve yet to see that.

Skelly takes a somewhat unusual path (historically) to the Sprint coming out of a second-place finish in the Louisville Thoroughbred Society Stakes at Churchill Downs, but the 5-year-old Practical Joke gelding has three wins and four seconds in seven starts this year and finished second in the Grade 1 Alfred G. Vanderbilt Handicap in July at Saratoga. A multiple Grade 3 winner, Skelly also ran second in February in the $5,625,000 Riyadh Dirt Sprint in Saudi Arabia. He does look like a need-the-lead type, and that’s a tall order in this race to be in front from start to finish.

Nakatomi ran second to Federal Judge in the Phoenix Stakes as the 1.07-1 favorite, which came one start after winning the Vanderbilt by 1 ½ lengths over the aforementioned Skelly. He can rate just off the pace and finish, and Nakotomi looks dangerous in this spot for trainer Wesley Ward. He finished third in last year’s Sprint.

All five of Straight No Chaser’s wins have come when leading from start to finish, so that’s a bit of a concern, but he enters the Breeders’ Cup Sprint off a dominant 6 ¼-length win in the Grade 2 Santa Anita Sprint Championship Stakes Presented by Estrella Jalisco.

Raging Torrent won his career debut from just off the pace but he’s set the pace in his last three starts, all wins, since transitioning from a brief foray on turf back to dirt earlier this season. The 3-year-old held off elite California older male sprinter The Chosen Vron to win the Pat O’Brien Stakes Aug. 24 on this racetrack in his most recent start. He can be effective racing just a length or two off what looks like a ton of early speed in the BC Sprint and make his mark late. Half of the six 3-year-olds to win the Sprint since 1999 did so in California. He’s my top pick.

Gun Pilot is a proven Grade 1 winner coming out of a runner-up finish in a New York prep race, but he’s a little inconsistent for my taste and I’m not sure he’s fast enough.

I loved California-based Dr. Venkman earlier this year and the pace scenario might be an ideal setup for him, but coming out of back-to-back two-turn races is a concern and I think I prefer to use him underneath to round out the exacta and/or trifecta. He’s 3-for-4 on the Del Mar main track and was cross-entered in the Big Ass Fans Dirt Mile, but the Sprint is his first option.

Japanese runners Don Frankie, Meta Max, and Remake all enter off wins, and of those Remake looks to have the highest upside. As much as I respect how far Japan racing has progressed, I would be inclined to play against them in a dirt sprint until proven otherwise. It’s the bread and butter of U.S. racing.

My three-horse exacta box probably will be Raging Torrent, Mullikin, and I’ll keep a close eye on the odds of Dr. Venkman and Nakatomi for the third slot.